Incidence of typhoid fever in Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria (the Severe Typhoid in Africa programme): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid Fever remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income settings. The Severe Typhoid in Africa programme was designed to address regional gaps in typhoid burden data and identify populations eligible for interventions using novel typhoid conjugate vaccines. METHODS: A hybrid design, hospital-based prospective surveillance with population-based health-care utilisation surveys, was implemented in six countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients presenting with fever (≥37·5°C axillary or ≥38·0°C tympanic) or reporting fever for three consecutive days within the previous 7 days were invited to participate. Typhoid fever was ascertained by culture of blood collected upon enrolment. Disease incidence at the population level was estimated using a Bayesian mixture model. FINDINGS: 27 866 (33·8%) of 82 491 participants who met inclusion criteria were recruited. Blood cultures were performed for 27 544 (98·8%) of enrolled participants. Clinically significant organisms were detected in 2136 (7·7%) of these cultures, and 346 (16·2%) Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi were isolated. The overall adjusted incidence per 100 000 person-years of observation was highest in Kavuaya and Nkandu 1, Democratic Republic of the Congo (315, 95% credible interval 254-390). Overall, 46 (16·4%) of 280 tested isolates showed ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility. INTERPRETATION: High disease incidence (ie, >100 per 100 000 person-years of observation) recorded in four countries, the prevalence of typhoid hospitalisations and complicated disease, and the threat of resistant typhoid strains strengthen the need for rapid dispatch and implementation of effective typhoid conjugate vaccines along with measures designed to improve clean water, sanitation, and hygiene practices. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-income and lower middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by a massive death toll. However, the overall effect of the pandemic, including potential unintended negative impacts of some control measures, on mortality remains poorly understood in low-income and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review aims to summarise the available literature on excess mortality in LLMICs, focusing on the methods and data sources used in estimating excess mortality and the drivers of excess mortality. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will review the available literature and report results in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus. All published studies that report on the estimates of excess mortality in populations of LLMICs will be included. This will include those with a publication date from 2019 onwards and those with at least a 1-year non-COVID-19 period as the comparator in the estimation of excess mortality during the pandemic. There will be no language restrictions on the search. The meta-analysis will include studies with extractable data on excess mortality, methods, population size, and observed and expected deaths. We will use the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% CIs. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As there is no primary data collection, there is no requirement for ethical review. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication and conference presentations. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022378267.

Correspondence: The African snakebite Alliance.

The goal to reduce the burden of snakebite envenoming is challenged by the gaps in evidence for clinical care and public health. These evidence gaps and the absence of a strong network are illustrated by bibliometrics. The African Snakebite Alliance is a multidisciplinary group focusing on research themes which will generate evidence needed to shape policy and practice.

Stakeholder perspectives from 15 countries in Africa on barriers in snakebite envenoming research and the potential role of research hubs.

Snakebite envenoming is a debilitating neglected tropical disease disproportionately affecting the rural poor in low and middle-income countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. Critical questions and gaps in public health and policy need to be addressed if major progress is to be made towards reducing the negative impact of snakebite, particularly in the World Health Organisation (WHO) Africa region. We engaged key stakeholders to identify barriers to evidence-based snakebite decision making and to explore how development of research and policy hubs could help to overcome these barriers. We conducted an electronic survey among 73 stakeholders from ministries of health, health facilities, academia and non-governmental organizations from 15 countries in the WHO Africa region. The primary barriers to snakebite research and subsequent policy translation were limited funds, lack of relevant data, and lack of interest from policy makers. Adequate funding commitment, strong political will, building expert networks and a demand for scientific evidence were all considered potential factors that could facilitate snakebite research. Participants rated availability of antivenoms, research skills training and disease surveillance as key research priorities. All participants indicated interest in the development of research and policy hubs and 78% indicated their organization would be willing to actively participate. In conclusion, our survey affirms that relevant stakeholders in the field of snakebite perceive research and policy hubs as a promising development, which could help overcome the barriers to pursuing the WHO goals and targets for reducing the burden of snakebite.

Mhealth tools for community-based infectious disease surveillance in Africa: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Countries in the WHO's African region have found community-based surveillance useful in ensuring the effectiveness of the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy. This approach encourages community participation in the surveillance system, in addition to early detection of outbreaks and other health threats. Thus, advancements in mobile health have the potential to improve community-based surveillance in Africa. The purpose of this review is to map evidence on available mhealth tools for community-based infectious disease surveillance in Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The scoping review will follow a mixed-methods approach in line with the framework of Arksey and O'Malley amended by Levac and colleagues and the Joanna Briggs Institute. To retrieve published literature, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and Google databases will be explored. Websites of organisations involved in surveillance activities across the African region will also be explored. Authors will be interested in published literature between 2000 and 2022 in any language. The primary investigator and a second author will independently review the retrieved titles according to the inclusion criteria, while a third reviewer will resolve conflicts that may arise. The review will map evidence according to the key concepts (mhealth, community-based surveillance and Africa) to inform stakeholders and mhealth designers on best practices to adopt involving mhealth approaches at the community level and mhealth tool designs, respectively. Results following the review will be presented according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: Extension for Scoping Review Guidelines. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for scoping reviews as it does not involve the use of human subjects. This review is the first phase in an overall project on digital health. The findings of the review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated at suitable forums and conferences.

A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples.

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.

Mixed methods study protocol for combining stakeholder-led rapid evaluation with near real-time continuous registry data to facilitate evaluations of quality of care in intensive care units.

Background: Improved access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not equated to improved health outcomes. Absence or unsustained quality of care is partly to blame. Improving outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) requires delivery of complex interventions by multiple specialties working in concert, and the simultaneous prevention of avoidable harms associated with the illness and the treatment interventions. Therefore, successful design and implementation of improvement interventions requires understanding of the behavioural, organisational, and external factors that determine care delivery and the likelihood of achieving sustained improvement. We aim to identify care processes that contribute to suboptimal clinical outcomes in ICUs located in LMICs and to establish barriers and enablers for improving the care processes. Methods: Using rapid evaluation methods, we will use four data collection methods: 1) registry embedded indicators to assess quality of care processes and their associated outcomes; 2) process mapping to provide a preliminary framework to understand gaps between current and desired care practices; 3) structured observations of processes of interest identified from the process mapping and; 4) focus group discussions with stakeholders to identify barriers and enablers influencing the gap between current and desired care practices. We will also collect self-assessments of readiness for quality improvement. Data collection and analysis will be led by local stakeholders, performed in parallel and through an iterative process across eight countries: Kenya, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda and Vietnam. Conclusions: The results of our study will provide essential information on where and how care processes can be improved to facilitate better quality of care to critically ill patients in LMICs; thus, reduce preventable mortality and morbidity in ICUs. Furthermore, understanding the rapid evaluation methods that will be used for this study will allow other researchers and healthcare professionals to carry out similar research in ICUs and other health services.

Impact of COVID-19 on health service utilisation in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in health systems of many countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite comparatively low rates of COVID-19 admissions and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, the pandemic still had a significant impact by disrupting health service utilisation (HSU). The aim of this scoping review is to synthesise the available evidence on HSU in sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially focusing on (1) changes in HSU compared with the prepandemic period, (2) changes in HSU among particular patient groups studied and (3) identifying factors determining changes in HSU as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: The scoping review will be guided by the methodological framework for conducting scoping reviews developed by Arskey and O'Malley. We will identify relevant studies on HSU in sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic using PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases from 1 December, 2019 to 31 March 2023. We will search grey literature, government and organisational websites for reports and conference proceedings. Included studies will be restricted to those reported in English or French. Two reviewers will independently screen articles at the title and abstract stage for inclusion into full text screening. We will provide a general descriptive overview, tabular summaries and content analysis for the extracted data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for the conduct of the scoping review. We will disseminate our findings via open access peer-reviewed journals and scientific presentations. Our scoping review findings will help to determine the feasibility of a subsequent systematic review (and meta-analysis) on HSU during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Community members and healthcare workers' priorities for the control and prevention of snakebite envenoming in Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: Snakebite is one of the most neglected tropical diseases. In Ghana, there has been a limited interest in snakebite envenoming research despite evidence of high human-snake conflicts. In an effort to meet the World Health Organisation's (WHO) 2030 snakebite targets, the need for research evidence to guide policy interventions is evident. However, in setting the research agenda, community and healthcare workers' priorities are rarely considered. METHODS: Three categories of focus groups were formed in the Ashanti and Upper West regions of Ghana, comprising of community members with and without a history of snakebite and healthcare workers who manage snakebite patients. Two separate focus group discussions were conducted with each group in each region. Using the thematic content analysis approach, the framework method was adopted for the data analysis. A predefined 15-item list of potential snakebite-associated difficulties and the WHO's 2030 snakebite strategic key activities were ranked in order of priority based on the participants' individual assessment. RESULTS: Both acute and chronic effects of snakebite such as bite site management, rehabilitation and mental health were prioritised by the community members. Health system challenges including training, local standard treatment protocols and clinical investigations on the efficacy of available antivenoms were identified as priorities by the healthcare workers. Notably, all the participant groups highlighted the need for research into the efficacy of traditional medicines and how to promote collaborative strategies between traditional and allopathic treatment practices. CONCLUSION: The prioritisation of chronic snakebite envenoming challenges by community members and how to live and cope with such conditions accentuate the lack of post-hospital treatment follow-ups for both mental and physical rehabilitation. To improve the quality of life of patients, it is essential to involve grassroots stakeholders in the process of developing and prioritising future research agenda.

The person-to-person transmission landscape of the gut and oral microbiomes.

The human microbiome is an integral component of the human body and a co-determinant of several health conditions1,2. However, the extent to which interpersonal relations shape the individual genetic makeup of the microbiome and its transmission within and across populations remains largely unknown3,4. Here, capitalizing on more than 9,700 human metagenomes and computational strain-level profiling, we detected extensive bacterial strain sharing across individuals (more than 10 million instances) with distinct mother-to-infant, intra-household and intra-population transmission patterns. Mother-to-infant gut microbiome transmission was considerable and stable during infancy (around 50% of the same strains among shared species (strain-sharing rate)) and remained detectable at older ages. By contrast, the transmission of the oral microbiome occurred largely horizontally and was enhanced by the duration of cohabitation. There was substantial strain sharing among cohabiting individuals, with 12% and 32% median strain-sharing rates for the gut and oral microbiomes, and time since cohabitation affected strain sharing more than age or genetics did. Bacterial strain sharing additionally recapitulated host population structures better than species-level profiles did. Finally, distinct taxa appeared as efficient spreaders across transmission modes and were associated with different predicted bacterial phenotypes linked with out-of-host survival capabilities. The extent of microorganism transmission that we describe underscores its relevance in human microbiome studies5, especially those on non-infectious, microbiome-associated diseases.

Intestinal Helminth Infections in Ghanaian Children from the Ashanti Region between 2007 and 2008-A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Real-Time PCR-Based Assessment.

In spite of ongoing eradication programs, helminth infections are still a medical issue in Ghana. For follow-up assessments on the decline of regional helminth infections, historic baseline prevalence values obtained with standardized diagnostic procedures can be helpful. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, real-time PCR targeting the nematodes Ancylostoma spp. (ITS2), Ascaris lumbricoides (ITS1), Enterobius vermicularis (ITS1), Necator americanus (ITS2), Strongyloides stercoralis (18S rRNA) and Trichuris trichiura (18S rRNA), the trematodes Schistosoma spp. (ITS2) as well as the cestodes Hymenolepis nana (ITS1), Taenia saginata (ITS1) and Taenia solium (ITS1) was applied with 2046 DNA eluates from stool samples of Ghanaian children from the Ashanti region collected between 2007 and 2008 in order to retrospectively define prevalence values. The overall prevalence was low with 3.8% (n = 77) and only 0.1% (n = 2) double infections with helminths were recorded. The three most frequently detected enteric helminth species comprised 2% S. stercoralis (n = 41), 0.8% H. nana (n = 16), and 0.7% N. americanus (n = 14), while only sporadic infection events were recorded for other helminth species comprising 0.1% E. vermicularis (n = 2), 0.1% Schistosoma spp. (n = 2), 0.1% T. saginata (n = 1) and 0.1% T. trichiura (n = 1). A. lumbricoides, Ancylostoma spp. and T. solium were not detected at all. In conclusion, the retrospective assessment suggests a low prevalence of enteric helminth infections in Ghanaian children from the Ashanti Region within the assessment period between 2007 and 2008.

Pandemic origins and a One Health approach to preparedness and prevention: Solutions based on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses.

COVID-19 is the latest zoonotic RNA virus epidemic of concern. Learning how it began and spread will help to determine how to reduce the risk of future events. We review major RNA virus outbreaks since 1967 to identify common features and opportunities to prevent emergence, including ancestral viral origins in birds, bats, and other mammals; animal reservoirs and intermediate hosts; and pathways for zoonotic spillover and community spread, leading to local, regional, or international outbreaks. The increasing scientific evidence concerning the origins of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most consistent with a zoonotic origin and a spillover pathway from wildlife to people via wildlife farming and the wildlife trade. We apply what we know about these outbreaks to identify relevant, feasible, and implementable interventions. We identify three primary targets for pandemic prevention and preparedness: first, smart surveillance coupled with epidemiological risk assessment across wildlife-livestock-human (One Health) spillover interfaces; second, research to enhance pandemic preparedness and expedite development of vaccines and therapeutics; and third, strategies to reduce underlying drivers of spillover risk and spread and reduce the influence of misinformation. For all three, continued efforts to improve and integrate biosafety and biosecurity with the implementation of a One Health approach are essential. We discuss new models to address the challenges of creating an inclusive and effective governance structure, with the necessary stable funding for cross-disciplinary collaborative research. Finally, we offer recommendations for feasible actions to close the knowledge gaps across the One Health continuum and improve preparedness and response in the future.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Burkina-Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The current COVID-19 pandemic affects the entire world population and has serious health, economic and social consequences. Assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 through population-based serological surveys is essential to monitor the progression of the epidemic, especially in African countries where the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear. METHODS: A two-stage cluster population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey was conducted in Bobo-Dioulasso and in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar and Kumasi, Ghana between February and June 2021. IgG seropositivity was determined in 2,163 households with a specificity improved SARS-CoV-2 Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay. Population seroprevalence was evaluated using a Bayesian logistic regression model that accounted for test performance and age, sex and neighbourhood of the participants. RESULTS: Seroprevalence adjusted for test performance and population characteristics were 55.7% [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49·0; 62·8] in Bobo-Dioulasso, 37·4% [95% CrI 31·3; 43·5] in Ouagadougou, 41·5% [95% CrI 36·5; 47·2] in Fianarantsoa, and 41·2% [95% CrI 34·5; 49·0] in Kumasi. Within the study population, less than 6% of participants performed a test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection since the onset of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: High exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was found in the surveyed regions albeit below the herd immunity threshold and with a low rate of previous testing for acute infections. Despite the high seroprevalence in our study population, the duration of protection from naturally acquired immunity remains unclear and new virus variants continue to emerge. This highlights the importance of vaccine deployment and continued preventive measures to protect the population at risk.

Commentary on COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Rates of vaccination against COVID-19 remain lower in sub-Saharan Africa than in other low and middle-income regions. This is, in part, attributed to vaccine hesitancy, mainly due to misinformation about vaccine origin, efficacy and safety. From August to December 2021, we gathered the latest experiences and opinions on four vaccine hesitancy-related areas (policies, perceived risk religious beliefs, and misinformation) from 12 sub-Saharan African researchers, four of whom have published about COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. The authors included two political and business experts, six public health specialists, five epidemiologists, and four biostatisticians from ten sub-Saharan African countries( Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe). The authors' overarching opinions were that political influences, religious beliefs and low perceived risk exists in sub-Saharan Africa, and they collectively contribute to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Communication strategies should target populations initially thought by policy makers to be at low risk, use multiple communication avenues and address major concerns in the population.

What the snake leaves in its wake: Functional limitations and disabilities among snakebite victims in Ghanaian communities.

BACKGROUND: The estimated five million snakebites per year are an important health problem that mainly affect rural poor populations. The global goal is to halve both mortality and morbidity from this neglected tropical disease by 2030. Data on snakebite morbidity are sparse and mainly obtained from hospital records. METHODS: This community-based study was conducted among 379 rural residents with or without a history of snakebite in the Ashanti and Upper West regions of Ghana. All participants in the snakebite group were bitten at least six months before the day of survey. The World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) and the Buruli Ulcer Functional Limitation Score were used to obtain patient-reported measure of functioning and disability. Long-term consequences were evaluated based on the severity of the symptoms at the time of the snakebite. FINDINGS: The median (IQR) time since the snakebite was 8.0 (3.5-16.5) years. The relative risk of disability was 1.54 (95% CI, 1.17-2.03) in the snakebite group compared to the community controls. Among patients with clinical symptoms suggesting envenoming at the time of bite, 35% had mild/moderate disabilities compared to 20% in the control group. The disability domains mainly affected by snakebite envenoming were cognition level, mobility, life activities and participation in society. A combination of the severity of symptoms at the time of the bite, age, gender and region of residence most accurately predicted the odds of having functional limitations and disabilities. CONCLUSION: The burden of snakebite in the community includes long-term disabilities of mild to moderate severity, which need to be considered when designing appropriate public health interventions. Estimating the total burden of snakebite is complicated by geographic differences in types of snakes and their clinical manifestations.

Fcγ-Receptor-Based Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays for Sensitive, Specific, and Persistent Detection of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Protein IgG Antibodies in Human Sera.

Sensitive and specific serological tests are mandatory for epidemiological studies evaluating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence as well as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality rates. The accuracy of results is challenged by antibody waning after convalescence and by cross-reactivity induced by previous infections with other pathogens. By employing a patented platform technology based on capturing antigen-antibody complexes with a solid-phase-bound Fcγ receptor (FcγR) and truncated nucleocapsid protein as the antigen, two SARS-CoV-2 IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), featuring different serum and antigen dilutions, were developed. Validation was performed using a serum panel comprising 213 longitudinal samples from 35 COVID-19 patients and a negative-control panel consisting of 790 pre-COVID-19 samples from different regions of the world. While both assays show similar diagnostic sensitivities in the early convalescent phase, ELISA 2 (featuring a higher serum concentration) enables SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody detection for a significantly longer time postinfection (≥15 months). Correspondingly, analytical sensitivity referenced to indirect immunofluorescence testing (IIFT) is significantly higher for ELISA 2 in samples with a titer of ≤1:640; for high-titer samples, a prozone effect is observed for ELISA 2. The specificities of both ELISAs were excellent not only for pre-COVID-19 serum samples from Europe, Asia, and South America but also for several challenging African sample panels. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG FcγR ELISAs, methodically combining antigen-antibody binding in solution and isotype-specific detection of immune complexes, are valuable tools for seroprevalence studies requiring the (long-term) detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in populations with a challenging immunological background and/or in which spike-protein-based vaccine programs have been rolled out.

Fighting Antimicrobial Resistance: Development and Implementation of the Ghanaian National Action Plan (2017-2021).

In recent years, Ghana has been recognised as a leading player in addressing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Africa. However, based on our literature review, we could not ascertain whether the core elements of the national action plan (NAP) were implemented in practice. In this paper, we present a qualitative analysis of the development of AMR-related policies in Ghana, including the NAP. We conducted 13 semi-structured expert interviews to obtain at a more thorough understanding of the implementation process for the AMR NAP and to highlight its accomplishments and shortcomings. The results show that AMR policies, as embodied in the NAP, have led to an extended network of cooperation between stakeholders in many political fields. Broadly, limited allocation of financial resources from the government and from international cooperation have been deplored. Furthermore, the opportunity for using the NAP in mainstreaming the response to the threat of AMR has not been seized. To the general public, this remained hidden behind a number of other relevant health topics such as infection prevention, veterinary services and pharmaceutical regulation. As a One Health (OH) challenge, developing countries could integrate AMR NAPs into other health and environmental programmes to improve its implementation in practice.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in urban settings in three sub-Saharan African countries (SeroCoV): a study protocol for a household-based cross-sectional prevalence study using two-stage cluster sampling.

INTRODUCTION: The current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the entire world with increasing morbidity and mortality and has resulted in serious economic and social consequences. Assessing the burden of COVID-19 is essential for developing efficient pandemic preparedness and response strategies and for determining the impact of implemented control measures. Population-based seroprevalence surveys are critical to estimate infection rates, monitor the progression of the epidemic and to allow for the identification of persons exposed to the infection who may either have been asymptomatic or were never tested. This is especially important for countries where effective testing and tracking systems could not be established and where non-severe cases or under-reported deaths might have blurred the true burden of COVID-19. Most seroprevalence surveys performed in sub-Saharan Africa have targeted specific high risk or more easily accessible populations such as healthcare workers or blood donors, and household-based estimates are rarely available. Here, we present the study protocol for a SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimation in the general population of Burkina Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The SeroCoV study is a household-based cross-sectional prevalence investigation in persons aged 10 years and older living in urban areas in six cities using a two-stage geographical cluster sampling method stratified by age and sex. The presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies will be determined using a sensitive and specific SARS-CoV-2 IgG ELISA. In addition, questionnaires will cover sociodemographic information, episodes of diseases and history of testing and treatment for COVID-like symptoms, travel history and safety measures. We will estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2, taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of the respective populations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was received for all participating countries. Results will be disseminated through reports and presentations at the country level as well as peer-reviewed publications and international scientific conferences presentations.

Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana.

This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana's early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137-0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection. This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions-such as border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation-during the first phase of the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap estimates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid-May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality.